Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
